Consumer Confidence Declines, Vehicle Sales Grow: What Does It Mean?

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia's economy grew 5.61 percent YoY in the first quarter of 2026. From the expenditure side, the component that grew fastest and the component that contributed the most are two different things.

A table of expenditure component growth and contribution for Q1 2026 from BPS presents data on government consumption, investment, and household spending.

Household consumption grew the slowest of the three, while remaining the largest contributor to growth. For marketers, it is this contribution figure that is more relevant to read, since it shows how large a role household spending plays in economic growth.

BPS explained that household consumption in Q1 2026 was driven by increased public mobility during Nyepi and Eid al-Fitr, the disbursement of the religious holiday allowance (THR) and 14th-month salary, various government stimulus measures such as transportation ticket discounts, and the BI Rate being held at 4.75 percent. These factors are the official explanations provided by BPS in its economic growth release.

Economic growth of 5.61 percent provides context on general economic conditions, and is not sufficient on its own to conclude that every market category experienced equally strong demand.

The wholesale and retail trade, and vehicle repair sector grew 6.26 percent

By business sector, BPS recorded that Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles grew 6.26 percent YoY in Q1 2026, higher than national economic growth over the same period.

This figure needs to be read according to its sectoral scope. This classification covers trade activity broadly and is not limited to motor vehicle sales. A more accurate reading of the 6.26 percent figure is as context indicating that trade and vehicle repair activity remained on a positive trend in early 2026, rather than as a direct measure of automotive industry performance.

Based on Bank Indonesia's Consumer Survey, the CCI for June 2026 stood at 117.8, down from 120.9 in May and 123.0 in April. Before this decline, the index had in fact ticked up slightly from 122.9 in March. The decline over the last two months also occurred in both of its main components.

A table of Bank Indonesia's Consumer Survey main indices for 2026 presents CCI, CSI, and CEI data for May and June 2026.

All indices remain above 100, which according to Bank Indonesia indicates that consumers remain at an optimistic level. The decline sustained over three consecutive months, however, points to a change in direction.

For marketers in high-value categories such as vehicles, several derivative indicators within the same survey deserve attention.

A table of the June 2026 Consumer Survey derivative indicators from Bank Indonesia presents indices for purchasing, income, employment availability, consumption, and savings.

The Durable Goods Purchasing Index covers vehicles and electronic equipment. This index, together with the Current Income Index and the Employment Availability Index, remained in optimistic territory despite declining from the previous month. At the same time, the share of income used for consumption rose to 73.0 percent, while the savings ratio fell to 17.0 percent.

The pattern in this section consists of three layers occurring simultaneously. Consumer confidence fell for three consecutive months, intent to purchase durable goods remained in optimistic territory, and households spent a larger share of income while saving less. Combined, these three points indicate that weakening consumer confidence is not always followed by weakening intent to purchase durable goods. This finding provides relevant context when reading vehicle market growth in the first half of 2026, though it is not sufficient to explain a causal relationship between the two.

The Retail Sales Survey presents a different picture depending on the basis of comparison used. For this reason, annual and monthly data need to be read separately.

A chart of the Real Sales Index along with changes in its periodization, based on Bank Indonesia data for 2026.

Two directions appear within the same index. On an annual basis, retail sales remain in contraction territory at 4.4 percent. On a monthly basis, the pace of contraction narrowed for three consecutive months. Bank Indonesia linked the improvement in June to the start of the school holiday period at the end of that month, and also noted improved performance in the Other Household Equipment group and the Clothing subgroup.

For marketers, a comparison is only meaningful if it uses the same basis and coverage period. An annual basis alone is not enough. The RSI figure of 4.4 percent YoY measures a single month, namely June 2026 against June 2025, whereas the 12.8 percent YoY figure measures a five-month cumulative period, namely January through May 2026 against the same period the previous year. A more equivalent comparison would be car sales in May 2026, which grew 14.2 percent YoY, against the RSI for May 2026 on the same annual basis.

The lesson lies in how the figures are read, not only in their direction. Comparing indicators using different bases of comparison risks producing a misleading interpretation of market conditions.

A table of car sales for January through May shows wholesale and retail data for 2025 and 2026 along with year-on-year growth.

The car market showed consistent growth in the first half of 2026, both in distribution to dealers and in sales to consumers. Wholesale records distribution from factory to dealer, while retail records sales from dealer to consumer. The two measure different stages of the market, so their pace does not always match.

In May 2026, retail car sales grew 17.2 percent year on year (YoY) against May 2025, higher than wholesale, which rose 14.2 percent. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, however, both retail and wholesale fell compared to April 2026.

In its publication, GAIKINDO cited market participants' assessment that the monthly contraction was seasonal in nature. A surge in shipments in April was driven by demand fulfillment following Eid al-Fitr, which created a high comparison base, while market activity in May was lower due to the large number of national holidays reducing effective working days.

As reported by detikOto, GAIKINDO Deputy Chairman I Jongkie Sugiarto cited two additional factors beyond seasonality. The weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar was cited as one cause, while the postponement of electric vehicle incentives led some consumers to hold off on new car purchases while waiting for lower prices.

These findings show that short-term changes in sales do not always reflect weakening demand. Seasonal factors as well as expectations regarding policy can shift the timing of purchases to a later period. For this reason, sales trends need to be read by looking at the context behind the movement in the data, not only the change in the figures themselves.

Growth in the motorcycle market was far more modest than for cars. First-half 2026 data still shows that this category has not moved into contraction. One retail category directly related to vehicle ownership even grew by double digits.

A table of motorcycle distribution from factory to dealer for 2026 presents unit data, comparison figures, and percentage changes according to AISI.

Comparison with car data is relatively equivalent, since AISI and GAIKINDO both use wholesale data. The difference lies in the coverage period: GAIKINDO's data covers January through May, while AISI's covers January through June.

As reported by CNN Indonesia, Astra Honda Motor stated that Honda's retail sales during the first half of 2026 rose by double digits. The company did not disclose the figure. This statement shows a wide gap with the industry's wholesale growth of 0.8 percent YoY. Available data does not explain the source of this gap, so the statement is used as additional context and not as a basis for analysis.

Evidence that aggregate indicators and category-level data can move differently is also visible within Bank Indonesia's Retail Sales Survey itself. While the overall June 2026 RSI remained in contraction at 4.4 percent YoY, the Spare Parts and Accessories group recorded an index of 145.5, growing 11 percent YoY. In May 2026, the groups that still grew year on year also included motor vehicle fuel as well as cultural and recreational goods.

This finding shows that a single aggregate indicator does not always reflect the condition of every category within it. For marketers, the RSI is more appropriately read as a general picture of consumption, and should not be used as a proxy for assessing the performance of a specific category. For this reason, marketing decisions should continue to refer to the relevant category-level data.

The challenge for marketers lies in selecting the level of data aggregation appropriate to the category being analyzed. The more specific the category, the smaller the risk of drawing a mistaken conclusion from an overly general economic indicator.

Throughout this article, the same pattern recurs repeatedly: aggregate economic indicators and category-level indicators do not always move in the same direction. The two are best read as complementary pieces of information.

Aggregate indicators serve as context, and do not replace category data

In June 2026, the CCI stood at 117.8 after falling for three consecutive months, and the RSI contracted 4.4 percent YoY. Over a nearby period, car sales grew 12.8 percent YoY and motorcycle sales grew 0.8 percent YoY.

Differences also appear within the same industry. Cars and motorcycles both grew, with a wide gap in pace, and both measure distribution from factory to dealer. That gap shows that the term "automotive market" is not necessarily specific enough to describe the condition of every category within it. Planning that relies on a single industry growth figure as a shared basis risks losing sight of that difference.

Differences within a single index can be as large as differences between indices

The Spare Parts and Accessories group grew 11 percent YoY in June 2026, within an RSI that contracted 4.4 percent YoY overall. This difference occurred within a single survey instrument, using identical methodology and period.

For marketers, insight often lies at the category level. For this reason, the breakdown by commodity group within the Retail Sales Survey is more worth using as a basis for analysis than relying on the aggregate index alone.

The basis of comparison determines the meaning of a figure

Wholesale car sales in May 2026 grew 14.2 percent YoY, while at the same time falling 14.3 percent compared to April 2026. Motorcycle sales in June 2026 rose 7.5 percent compared to May and rose 1.1 percent compared to June 2025. The June 2026 RSI contracted 4.4 percent YoY, while at the same time recording a monthly contraction that narrowed from 1.5 percent to 0.8 percent.

Marketers using industry data in internal presentations or communication materials should state the basis of comparison, the coverage period, and the type of figure used, including the distinction between wholesale and retail. These three factors determine the meaning of the figures presented.

Data throughout the first half of 2026 shows that Indonesia's economic indicators did not move in a single, uniform direction. Economic growth, consumer confidence, retail sales, and the vehicle market each measure different aspects, and can therefore produce signals that appear contradictory within the same period.

This article does not conclude that one indicator causes changes in another, since the available data does not measure such causal relationships. What can be observed is a pattern in which weakness in an aggregate indicator is not always followed by weakness across every category. Such differences can even appear within a single index.

For marketers, the main lesson lies in choosing the indicator best suited to the question being answered. Macro data helps in understanding economic context, while category data is more appropriate for reading market performance. In both cases, the basis of comparison, coverage period, and definition of the indicator still need to be stated so that interpretation is not mistaken.

References

Asosiasi Industri Sepeda Motor Indonesia. (2026). Statistic. Retrieved July 21, 2026, from https://www.aisi.or.id/statistic/

Badan Pusat Statistik. (2026, May 5). Ekonomi Indonesia triwulan I 2026 tumbuh 5,61 persen (y-on-y). Retrieved July 21, 2026, from https://www.bps.go.id/id/pressrelease/2026/05/05/2575/ekonomi-indonesia-Triwulan-i-2026-tumbuh-5-61-persen--y-on-y-.html

Bank Indonesia. (2026). Survei Konsumen Juni 2026. Retrieved July 21, 2026, from https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/laporan/Documents/SK-Juni-2026.pdf

Bank Indonesia. (2026, July 9). Survei Penjualan Eceran Juni 2026: Kinerja penjualan eceran diprakirakan terjaga. Retrieved July 21, 2026, from https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/ruang-media/news-release/Pages/sp_2813426.aspx

CNN Indonesia. (2026, June 9). Penjualan mobil baru Mei 2026 anjlok 14,3 persen. Retrieved July 21, 2026, from https://www.cnnindonesia.com/otomotif/20260609181337-579-1367202/penjualan-mobil-baru-mei-2026-anjlok-143-persen

CNN Indonesia. (2026, July 13). Penjualan motor Juni 2026 naik, semester I tembus 3,1 juta unit. Retrieved July 21, 2026, from https://www.cnnindonesia.com/otomotif/20260713084016-579-1379981/penjualan-motor-juni-2026-naik-semester-i-tembus-31-juta-unit

detikOto. (2026, June 10). Penjualan mobil turun lagi, Gaikindo ungkap penyebabnya. Retrieved July 21, 2026, from https://oto.detik.com/mobil/d-8526552/penjualan-mobil-turun-lagi-gaikindo-ungkap-penyebabnya

GAIKINDO. (2026, June 17). 10 best-selling car brands by whole sales January-May 2026. Retrieved July 21, 2026, from https://www.gaikindo.or.id/en/10-best-selling-car-brands-by-whole-sales-january-may-2026-toyota-remains-top-byd-moving-up/

Kompas.com. (2026, July 10). Penjualan motor semester I/2026 tembus 3,1 juta unit. Retrieved July 21, 2026, from https://otomotif.kompas.com/read/2026/07/10/090200515/penjualan-motor-semester-i-2026-tembus-3-1-juta-unit