20:T40e,

The number of padel courts in Indonesia rose 295 percent in a single year. Throughout 2026, various signs of strain emerged: one court was sold for IDR 199 million, the Jakarta Provincial Government halted the issuance of permits for new courts in residential zones, new clubs began offering free trials, and some operators started reporting falling occupancy. These developments have fueled the assumption that the padel bubble is starting to burst.

But that conclusion is still premature. To declare that a bubble has burst, we first need to know which variable was overinflated to begin with. In Indonesia's padel industry, that's exactly where the problem lies. Data on the number of courts, transactions, and capacity is reasonably complete. Data on how many people are actually playing padel, on the other hand, has never been measured independently.

This article looks at why almost every sign of strain that emerged throughout 2026 comes from the supply side, while the state of demand still can't be confirmed.

21:T566,

Setiap akhir bulan, jutaan rekening di Indonesia bergerak ke arah yang sama: dari kota besar menuju kampung halaman. Anak yang bekerja di Jakarta mengirim sejumlah uang kepada ibunya di Klaten. Anak yang merantau ke Surabaya menelepon ayahnya di Jember setiap Minggu malam. Grup WhatsApp keluarga menyala setiap pagi dengan pesan singkat dan foto sarapan.

Pola ini terlihat rapi. Uang sampai, telepon terangkat, kabar tersampaikan. Namun bagi banyak anak rantau, semua itu sering terasa belum cukup. Mereka membayar biaya kontrol dokter tanpa pernah menemani ke poliklinik. Mereka mengetahui jadwal obat orang tuanya, tetapi lupa kapan terakhir kali menggenggam tangannya.

Seiring Indonesia memasuki era populasi menua, semakin banyak anak yang merawat orang tua dari jarak jauh. Dukungan finansial, koordinasi layanan kesehatan, hingga komunikasi sehari-hari dilakukan tanpa tinggal serumah. Meski praktik ini semakin umum, perhatian kebijakan, layanan, maupun riset masih lebih